Regatta Weather Report (sponsored by North Sails)

Sailing Weather Forecast
LPRC 2017

Issued 0330 CDT FRIDAY 27 OCTOBER 2017

NOTE: This is an outlook forecast for today through Sunday. You should reference up to date forecasts for tomorrow and Sunday.

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WARNING AND ADVISORIES: There are no active warnings or advisories posted for the sailing area. There are several up-coming weather hazards to note:

1) There is a MARGINAL RISK of SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS this evening and overnight until about mid-night. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS implies frequent lightning strikes, very heavy rain with reduced visibility, wind gusts over 40 knots, locally rough sea conditions, and possible hail and waterspouts.

2) A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY is posted from mid-night tonight into early Sunday morning. There is a MODERATE risk of winds exceeding 25 knots tomorrow (Saturday). Gusts may reach 35 kts.

You are STRONGLY ADVISED to monitor NOAA All Hazards Radio for the latest official warnings and advisories.
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REGATTA WEATHER SUMMARY: Light to moderate winds are forecast for today. A strong cold front is forecast to move through the area tonight bringing a surge or fresh to strong N’lies tomorrow, followed by moderating NW’lies on Sunday.

Today, high pressure is moving off the southeast Atlantic coast. While a cold front moving out of central Plains is approaching the southern Mississippi River valley. This cold front will move through New Orleans tonight. This pattern will set up a S/SW pressure gradient which is likely to hold most of the day

The cold front will move through overnight with an abrupt shift from S/SW to NW/N and a big build in pressure by tomorrow morning. A moderately strong high pressure building over the central plains will push very cool air south toward the Gulf coast. This strong, well mixed gradient will maintain fresh to strong winds today, but moderating overnight.

On Sunday, the NW/N gradient will stay in place, but will be on the decline. It will be strongest in the morning, easing from late morning through afternoon. It will be cool with low humidity, but the high pressure will support sunny conditions and fine weather throughout.

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TODAY (27 OCTOBER 2017)

FORECAST DISCUSSION: ESE 7-11 easing to light and variable for a time late morning. Then puffs off SSE wind pushing off the shore late morning through mid-day. Becoming SSE/S increasing to 10-15 in the afternoon. Very puffy and unstable.

WEATHER: Sunny at first then increasing clouds through the morning and becoming mostly cloudy this afternoon. Chance of showers today, mainly in the afternoon. Chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. Some STRONG to SEVERE thunderstorms are possible this evening.
AIR TEMPERATURE: Mid-60sF to Near 80F.

SEAS: Chop generally 1-2 ft.
Detailed Wind Forecast for TODAY:

HEDGE: 1) Forecast Confidence: AVERAGE.

Models are in generally good agreement regarding the overall forecast trends this morning. There is some spread with regard to wind speed as some show more build while others are keeping a light thermal component over the lake which holds the gradient build off until later in the afternoon. Given expected cloud developing, feel that thermal component will be limited. Therefore, hedged forecast toward gradient – especially this afternoon.

2) Watch for a general with trending winds from late morning through the afternoon. Puffs moving off the shore will tend to bring right shifts, while lulls will tend to be left-shifted.

3) Showers will likely come into the picture by this afternoon. Slight chance of thunderstorms, but I’d expect any storms to hold off until sailing is done for the day.

4) Around any rain cells, watch for abrupt shifts and gusts. Gusts associate with rain will easily exceed 20 knots and could be much higher near thunderstorms later this afternoon/evening.

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SATURDAY (28 OCTOBER 2017): Strong NNW/N gradient flow develops.

WIND: NNW/N 18-23 gusting 25-30. Possibly easing 15-20 gusting 25 in the afternoon, but building again late afternoon/evening
WEATHER: Much cooler. Some morning cloud with a slight chance of some lingering showers through mid-morning. Becoming mostly sunny and dry in the afternoon.

TEMPERATURES: Steady 55-60F.

SEAS: Rough 2-4 ft.

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SUNDAY (29 OCTOBER 2017): Moderating N tending NW wind.

WIND: N/NNW 12-16 at first, easing to 11-15 mid-/late-morning and 9-14 by early afternoon. Winds backing NNW/NW. Puffy and shifty.

WEATHER: Mostly sunny.

TEMPERATURES: Continued cool. 55F warming to 65F.

SEAS: Rough 2-4 ft AM, subsiding 1-3 ft PM.